Will Knott

An exam of “Epicness” proposed by TheChrisD includes the following question…

Encompassing standard distribution and chaos theory, calculate the following:

1. The probability that there will be ten green bottles sitting on any given wall.
2. If and when one green bottle will accidentally fall.

For the context of this question, you may substitute: fat sausages sizzling in a pan, one of which goes pop, another of which goes bang; bottles of beer on a wall, one of which is taken down and passed around.

The problem in answering this question lies with the substitution… as none of these three scenarios have equal probability, also location has a bearing on the matter…

1. The probability that there will be ten green bottles sitting on any given wall.
Usually 0. The only occasion when I have seen this occur is then 10 green bottles were cemented on to the top of the wall. Then broken leaving jagged edges to reduce climbing.

Oddly the person who put them there did not break them, see below.

2. If and when one green bottle will accidentally fall.
Again depending on circumstance.
a) 0 if cemented
b) 0.02 in calm weather conditions or indoors left alone
c) 0.4 in rough weather conditions, but this is dependent on shelter and location and what the wall is constructed of. This probability remains high in a poorly constructed shack, and high in a well constructed building during a tropical storm
d) 0.99 (or 99%) should a cat try out weaving or passing the bottles. 100% if the cat in question is of the LOL variety.

However looking at the substitutions…
1) 10 fat sausages sizzling in a pan
Depends on location (and chef/cook craving). If you are craving sausages, then a pack of 6 or 12 will be purchased. In the case of a pack of 6, the probability is indeed 0, as its impossible. In the case of a pack of 12, the probability rises, but is dependent on  a frying pan able to hold 10. In the case of grilling sausages, again the probability falls to 0.
2) one of which goes pop, another of which goes bang
Depends on quality of the meat and oil used. In practice sausages never go “bang” or “pop” but a sizzle, the intensity of which depends on the level of “cookness” on the downward facing part of the sausage. What happen is that water added to the hot oil makes the noise. Should the sausages be of very low quality then the probability of them making either noise increases. In the case of cooking sausages, the water boils off the surface quickly and goes crisp, while the steam passes through the sausage cooking the inside.

There is a science of cooking. I want more lab time.

and

1)10 bottles of beer on a wall
The likelihood of this occurring outside of a party/BBQ situation is very low. The number 10 is also problematic. Usually bottles are sold in packs of 6, or “slabs” or crates (depending on commercial or retail sale) of either 10 or 24 (12 in the case of pint bottles (my barman days rear their heads on occasions)). So 10 on a wall does not occur on a regular basis.

Should the first condition occur

2) one of which is taken down and passed around.
is 100% in the following situation.
If the wall is a boundary wall, if the opposite side contains under legal drinking age kids who want it, if the wall is slightly shorter than the maximum reach of the tallest member of the aforementioned kids. Then its 100%

Should the bottle be cemented to the wall, an attempt will be made to take them down and pass them around, but the cementing will ensure that they are not removed.

Then the probability of the bottles being stoned / smashed by insulted kids (or indeed winos, this isn’t and ageist argument) is high.
However, in this case, none of the bottles “did accidentally fall”, but stone kicked up by passing trucks will be the alibi used by the kids.

And there will be no green bottles left siting on the wall.